(Continuation from yesterday)

A considerable number of people above high school who have science thought, noticed "Oh, it's an exponential function." or "It's a disease that easily spreads to 10 to 20% of the population." with looking at the situation in China in February and the spread of infected people to Diamond Princess in 20% of passengers,

If you couldn't imagine the reason for the convergence at that stage, you should be worried about something in your heart.

And, while making predictions, I think the truth is that most people did not believe in their predictions based on normalization bias.

There must have been an enormous number of people who were even a little worried about the possibility that the coronavirus could spread while riding an exponential function, at the same rate as those who said, "I didn't think I would really lose in World War II (I knew I couldn't really win),"

Even Some people who thought a little calmly, "There can be no exponential function in reality, in the end it is a logistic curve", come to think that "the number of patients who reach the end of the logistic curve" is "the number of patients who achieve collective immunity."

So they might have felt anxious that the rate of increase could almost ride on the exponential function for a while ...I'm sure there was a reasonable number of people.

I think it was either "what kind of mathematics can predict the future of humankind" or If it becomes a reality it is too dangerous ..." instinctively.

Now, Mr. Ebata. how did you take the worst number in his mind before March 21st?

====== the end of Reply from Dr. Shibata ("Shibata of the overrun") ======

(Supplement by Ebata)

The "logistic function" here simply means that, assuming a country with only 100 people, the closer the number of infected people is to 100, the more the number of infected people decreases. Or, taking infinite time, everyone will be infected.

The "exponential function" here is the situation where the number of infected people increases at a doubling pace every day. So-called "infection explosion".

(To be continued)