I read "Economists on the Outbreak of War between Japan and the United States"

The Shinchosensho was quite a hard book for me to read, but I finished it in four days, walking an hour every day.

In this book,

(1) In the face of an overwhelming disadvantageous power gap (Japan-U.S. power ratio: 1:20-50)

(2) The information in (1) above is not secret information, but is widely disclosed not only to those in power, but also to the public.

(3) Before the start of the war, the simulation of "Japan's inevitable defeat" was completed perfectly, and

(4) The cabinet, the government, and even the military were almost all aware of this reality.

even under the circumstances of (1)～(4), rather because of the circumstances, Japan's entry into the Pacific War.

This is a book that clarifies this fact from the perspective of behavioral economics.

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I thought there were many ways to read it, but my biggest thought was,

"The cause of the war was not the military or the government, but rather the people who could not or would not read the numbers"

According to the author's analysis, "a government that is weak and incapable of decision-making" and "an incompetent and crude army" are quite fanciful.

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And as I read this book, I was thinking, "If I were in power, could I have turned this around and averted war?

However, I became convinced that it was hopelessly impossible.

In particular, I thought that prospect theory was too strong.

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Option A : If the war does not start, Japan will be brought to its knees by the economic blockade of the U.S. and Britain in three years.

Option B : If the war starts, we will almost certainly lose. However,

(1) If Germany defeats the Soviet Union and

(2) If the Germans succeed in landing in England, and

(3) If Japan acquires the resources of Southeast Asia, establishes transportation routes, and

(4) If the British surrender to the Germans

At that time, the U.S. may lose its will to engage in war and accept a peace treaty.

Even if there are four "ifs" and one "might" (which is a near-zero possibility by any measure), according to the prospect theory of behavioral economics, "choice A" < "choice B".

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According to the author, if there is a way to avoid this situation, it is

(1) A "dictator who insists on avoiding war" will appear in our country.

(2) Choose option A and wait for the situation to change somewhere in the next three years with "no action".

The author's summation, "These would have been the only two ways," resonated with me.

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"If we find ourselves in a situation similar to the Pacific War, we will start the war again, regardless of the lessons of history"

It was a book that gave me a pretty good sense of "desperation".