There is a method of proof called "reductio ad absurdum."

When you want to prove a proposition P, you assume that "P is false", and by deriving a contradiction from it, you conclude that the assumption that "P is false is false", i.e. "P is true".

Now, here we go,

(1) Assume that "new coronaviruses exist and there is a disease called COVID-19" is false.

And now, after writing all this... I'm tired, so I'll stop.

The reason is that if you know the "reductio ad absurdum" in the first place, I don't need to talk about this stupid stuff.

Let me change the subject.

-----

I was once involved in a case where the authorities (police) conspired to make up a criminal.

I also know of incidents where the government has put people in danger by spreading bullshit information -- either arbitrary or ignorant (including "lack of information" in this case).

In the first place, we are all familiar with (and have been educated about) the national conspiracy of the Pacific War of 80 years ago, called the "Great Headquarters Announcement.

Therefore, I believe that the stance of the people of our country to 'half trust the state' is 'unavoidable' in light of the above history.

However, I also know that there are very few people who "do the other half of the research (study) on their own."

-----

I also know that the management of 'conspiracies' and 'plots' is quite difficult.

Depending on the number and demographics of the people involved, it is easy for secrets to be leaked if they are few and do not belong to a narrow organization (such as a company or government).

This can be produced by a simple calculation.

For example, if you think that the difficulty of concealing a conspiracy is 10 times greater in a group of 10, 100, or 1,000 people, you need to go back and redo your math (probability, exponents).

In addition, it is hopelessly difficult to have a large-scale "conspiracy" or "plot" against all generations of all people (all over the world).

As far as infectious diseases are concerned, I can believe in something like sealing off "one village" and killing and incinerating everyone. Because this seems to be a range that can be covered up by power.

It is "extremely difficult" or, to put it bluntly, "impossible" to conceal or falsify the number of infected people, the number of hospital beds, or the number of infected deaths, for example, in matters that concern all Japanese citizens.

Even if it could be done, it would take a lot of people and a lot of money.

So where do the people and money come from, and most importantly, I can't even make a rational hypothesis as to why they would do such a thing.

-----

In conclusion, I think that

I'm not saying there aren't conspiracies (I'm sure there are), but in the case of this infectious disease, there is no reason to conspire, and even if there were, the cost would not be worth it.

Well, I thought this would be easier than explaining the "reductio ad absurdum."